ON_Technology_Taxonomy: Changing Weather - A new taxonomy to survive the techstorm

Originally posted on Medium.com, December 31, 2019

(Download the tech3torm mtrl here)

Earlier this fall I found myself in the windy, dry and anything-but drab souks of Marrakech. At first I thought my wander into these Moroccan mazes of wares and fares would be a simple endeavor. Go in, look around, experience the excited atmosphere and get out: culturally enriched and with some beautiful newly-acquired local crafts. But that wasn’t what happened. What was supposed to be a stroll from the souks turned into a Theseus-esque trek ending hours later in the back of the taxi alongside three burly men with as much English between them as they had teeth — the bare bones amount.

Why am I telling you this? Because, as with much in life, the more you delve into something, or spend time with something, the more it unravels into complexity. In such a scenario, as with Theseus and the Minotaur, a ball of thread is often required to find a way out of the madness and back into clarity.

In many ways this is where I find myself today, twenty years as a technology investor and four years on from the first publishing of “Navigating the Techstorm” — my first literary attempt to forecast all-things-tech for those interested in strategic insights based decades of investing and investigating — much has stayed the same yet much more has changed. In short, the storm has barely settled, and an even bigger one is on the horizon.

Which is why I think it is time for a revisitation, one that reveals a new language and taxonomy for this soup-like-souk of a scenario. No longer can certain technologies be considered part of the techstorm, some have drizzled out, many more poured in, others have split supercell warranting different and new forms of classification.

So where are all the weather girls (and boys)? The more I search for a clearer picture, the more muddied it becomes. With lines, flows, charts, and colors creating a constellation of confusion for anyone without decades worth of research under their belt. At a quick glance — which is all many of us have time for — you realize that many have opted for the more ‘tell versus show’ option, often with dismaying (read: dull) results. Worse still are those that continue to compare augmented apples with quantum oranges — betraying a level of ignorance that might be missed in the midst of the volume of ‘information’ on offer.

That said, there are a number of really good attempts to map the current world of technology and innovation. First, look to Imperial College London’s guide, for example, who have recreated the tech landscape in a 10 x 10 grid version of the periodic table. Second, check out the creative illustration by Matthias Koller. Finally, for a couple of honorary mentions, dive deep into the more academic approaches to structuring emerging technology areas at the TechCast Project and the Finnish government’s technology crowdsourcing project.

What I’m missing is a comprehensive layered technology taxonomy that makes sense from a strategic business perspective. One that gives the reader a quick overview as well as relevant deep-dives into a strategic tech + business narrative when needed. Let me explain some of the context underpinning a guide that, although seems simple on the surface, has a library of information laying beneath it.

In my book “Navigating the Techstorm”, I begin by writing about how major changes in society and the way people live and do business have been determined by the developments in technology corresponding to each particular era. These technological waves have resulted in progression in society, a progression that means our lives today are so different to the lives of yesterday as to be unrecognizable — when was the last time you had to worry about smallpox, or whether your letter to a relative on the other side of the world was received?

Central to this idea are General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). GPTs are the thread needle that sews together past, present and future technological outlooks. The wheel, the printing press and the computer are three great GPTs that have laid the foundations of human advancement across many different areas. Overall there are in fact at least a total of 26 existing GPTs (plus six aspiring GPTs), all of which have had (or will have) profound effects on how we live as a species.

It is these advancements that are the driving forces behind technological waves: With one or several GPTs being the active forces behind them. Since the dawn of the industrial revolution, there has been a total of six waves, all impossible to miss: the first to surge throughout our society were ‘Early Mechanization’ (1770s to the 1830s), ‘Steam Power and Railways’ (1830s to 1880s), ‘Electrical and Heavy Engineering’ (1880s to 1930s), ‘Fordist Mass Production’ (1930s to 1970s) and, most recently, ‘Information and Communication’ (1970s to 2010s).

Even though the technologies charging these waves widely differ and come from different eras, there is a clear developmental pattern that these technologies must go through to reach widespread adoption: Experimentation, expansion and transformation. In every wave, decisions are made, based on the ethics, morals and culture of the time. Businesses, organisations and humanity have faced varied developmental paths throughout history, the same will be true in the future. Consider the pressing need for more sustainability today, this could be the greatest influencer of innovation of our time, yet it stands to reason that this wasn’t in the zeitgeist at the time of early mechanization. The point being that although these waves do indeed ‘rhyme’ the principles used today to make decisions regarding how to use technology will not necessarily apply in tomorrow’s world.

The first phase before a technology achieves widespread adoption is experimentation. During the experimentation phase of the technological wave, an outdated technology begins to be replaced by a new one. Remember how the first cars were called ‘horseless carriages’ and very much resembled actual horse drawn carriages, with litter major improvements to functionality. At this stage, public perception is more curious and questioning than embracing, with goodwill and trust given in the hope that the new technology will change everything eventually. We see this once again in mobility, and how investors invested mass amounts into companies such as Tesla (or any scooter company), with the expectancy that its technology and model will be the next big thing and become the new norm in the end.

Next comes the expansion phase, wherein the new technology improves, leading to significant advances in demand. The technology then spreads to more and more users, with society eventually getting used to it as it adapts better to the needs of the time.

This is when the technology enters the transformational phase. Society is restructured in large part due to the technology’s impact. At its peak, the new technology goes from luxury to ubiquity, shaping society in its image. To return to the car, which reached this phase around the 1940s and 1950s (at least in the Western world) and how it led to the the emergence of suburbs, shopping malls and drive-in cinemas, phenomena that would otherwise have been impossible.

The last wave, IT, has now run its course. One way of telling this is that when a wave reaches maturity, big societal changes occur. Take a look at the 1830s, when the world witnessed a rapid rise of imperialism and colonialism. Or the 1880s, which saw the second industrial revolution and the Gilded age. More recently, the 1930s experienced massive strides in aviation, radio and film, connecting the world like never before, only for the 1960s to see us put a man on the moon. It would be the with the launch of microprocessor, introduced by Intel in 1971, that would begin the ‘Information and Communication’ wave, and 50 years later, we are experiencing the boons and busts of living in a truly connected and information-deluged society, living in a period of seemingly unprecedented change when in fact this follows a pattern we have seen several times before.

More precisely, if we examine these paradigm shifts in even more detail, other signs of changing times emerge. During these periods, it seems as if one invention leads to another, and that there are local, regional and national effects working together to form a positive environment for innovation and technological change. Further to this, these innovations are followed by improvements in communication and transportation. New power sources — which we have yet to see in this wave yet we see many prospects on the horizon — also come into the fore, fueling this rapid change.

Most existentially, during these technological surges we gain new perspectives on time. Today businesses instinctively choose speed as a business development strategy, using advanced computer software, social networks and mobile communication to stay agile, analyzing their processes in realtime and overall enhancing organizational speed. The feeling that life is getting faster acts as a canary in the coal mine and is a sign of the imminent arrival of a new wave.

Which is where we are now, beginning to see the swells of the sixth wave: defined in my book as miniaturization. The GPT paving the way for miniaturization already exists. Still in its infancy, nanoscience bares all the hallmarks of a GPT, it is a single technology, had the scope for improvement, many (developing) use cases and ultimately will spillover into all manner of areas of society and economy. From a potential economic impact of trillions of dollars, to a healthier society that can manufacture its own goods to exact specifications, there seems to be no limit to the reach of nanoscience. This in turn is flanked by what are called the BANG technologies — Bits, Atoms, Neurons, Genes — all of which fit into this new wave of miniaturization.

So as you can see, we live in interesting times. To go bring us back to this minefield (or was it a maze?) of a moment, we must come up with a new way of approaching this rising wave before it comes crashing down upon us.

Since the book, this taxonomy has been in continuous evolution. I have now identified a total of 13 technology areas that categorize 100+ enabling technologies, ranging from insulating materials to mind control. This list is sourced from a roster of reputable sources*, augmented by decades of work in the tech investment industry. How is this different to before? Breadth and nuance. One example would again be mobility, in my Q2 2019 update this year it was listed as one technology, now it is divided into autonomous vehicles, micromobility, drones, hyperloops, space access (and more), all of which have their own strategic relevancy and strategic urgency for society and therefore business too.

Out of these 100+ enabling technologies, to make more business sense, I’ve then picked the 42 most relevant enabling technologies and placed them in a grid structure measuring “strategic relevance” vs. “strategic urgency”. It is these technologies that should be on the radar of anyone i business, as, depending on its position on the grid, it could have industry shifting implications.

In short, this method simplifies the complex: those with high strategic relevance, let’s say quantum computing for example, but low strategic urgency, fit into the ‘prepare’ quadrant of the grid — the technology is less established, but has great potential to have deep impact for businesses in the future.

At the other end, you find technologies such as wearables, that have low strategic relevance but high strategic urgency: the technologies to monitor as they are imminent, but perhaps not relevant to your industry.

Those with both low strategic relevance and urgency (sadly mind control) are worthy only of occasional review. Whilst those with high strategic relevance and urgency are ones that if you don’t already know about nor are acting on, now is the time. Remember that ignorance is bliss, but not a viable business strategy!

From these 42, I’ve chosen the top 10 enabling technologies that investors, entrepreneurs and innovators are most thrilled about at the moment, often (but not always) with good reason. As hype cycles ramp up and down, technological advancements do or die, there will inevitably be fluctuation, but ultimately this guide is a spirit level for the ghosts of technological future, “forecasting” what comes next or what does not. The techstorm forecast is a lexicon for businesses in that it makes clear the potential impact of new technologies and offers an informed timescale of what will hit and when.

So which technology is king of the quarter? Once again it is Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI has become the achilles heel to incumbents today, used to scare them into action when many are unsure of where that action will take them. That said, it has permeated the mainstream, and looks set to continue to have long term transformational impact (even as the short term hype diminishes), with even governments putting out plans for how best to harness this technology.

That’s what this “forecast” is all about: a bellwether for incoming techstorms and trends that only takes a moment to get to grips with. More flexible than what I have designed in the past, this newer and more nuanced taxonomy allows for greater insight without sacrificing the clarity: painting a business-friendly picture of where a technology stands and what can and cannot be done with it yesterday, today and tomorrow.

For a better understanding of what this taxonomy is and means, you can find my three page techstorm winter 2020 forecast here.

Happy forecasting…

*) Sources and further reading: www.techcastglobal.com, www.wef.org, www.tulevaisuuspankki.fi, www.ieee.org, www.nasa.gov, www.wipo.int, www.imperialtechforesight.com, www.matthiaskoller.me, www.longnow.org, www.futuretodayinstitute.com, www.boardofinnovation.com, www.iftf.org